http://www.banks.am/ Բիզնես լուրեր Հայաստանից, ֆինանսական լուրեր, բանկեր, աշխատատեղեր, դոլար, եվրո, փոխարժեքներ en-us Fri, 05 Jun 2026 03:38:51 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30756 https://banks.am/en/news//30756 On May 26, 2026, Mediamax Media Company hosted the Impacture 2026 conference, dedicated to discussions on charity, corporate social responsibility (CSR), and impact investments.

The partners of the Impacture 2026 conference included Ucom, IDBank, JTI Armenia, Tufenkian Foundation, and HENDERSON Armenia.

The first panel discussion was titled “Charity, CSR and Impact Investments: Conflict or Complementarity?”

The discussion featured Mher Abrahamyan, IDBank Board Chairman, Nazareth Seferian, Social Entrepreneurship and CSR Expert and Impact Hub Yerevan Board Member, Vache Vardanian, the Director and Founder of the Hayordi Charitable Foundation, and Larisa Hovannisian, the Founder and CEO of Teach for Armenia Educational Foundation.

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The discussion was moderated by Sharmagh Sakounts, Fundraising Consultant at APRI Armenia and Head of Fundraisers Club Armenia. 

The distinction between charity and CSR

Mher Abrahamyan, IDBank Board Chairman 

Sometimes it is difficult to draw a clear line between charity and corporate social responsibility (CSR). To distinguish between the two, it is important to understand the purpose each serves. As a rule, charity aims to address a specific, immediate issue, while social responsibility represents a more systemic approach focused on solving long-term challenges.

The key difference lies in philosophy, and the most important concept here is responsibility. It means being accountable to the environment and the society in which you operate and generate income.

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Of course, businesses create jobs, contribute to economic development, and pay taxes. It may seem that by doing so, they can avoid taking on additional responsibilities. However, taking responsibility and sharing the fruits of success is equally important.

Under the 2025 amendment to the tax code, commercial entities can reduce their corporate income tax by up to 2.5% of their gross income through donations made to state educational institutions. 

Tax legislation and government policy can significantly influence this sector, but I do not believe they can serve as the primary driving force. Such regulations may encourage, facilitate, or complicate implementation, but they cannot play a decisive role. 

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We recently implemented a highly valuable program at YSU, providing scholarships to 103 students from Artsakh. This initiative was not launched because of the tax amendment, it was part of the “Side by Side” program launched in 2024 to support our compatriots from Artsakh.

Nazareth Seferian, Social Entrepreneurship and CSR Expert, Impact Hub Yerevan Board Member

One of the most important priorities for any business is long-term planning, during which various issues emerge that may pose risks to its sustainable development.

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In the case of corporate responsibility, these issues are viewed through a business lens and include their strategic connection to the business. In other words, within CSR, a business sets goals that are relevant both to itself and to society.

The “meeting” of foundations and business

Vache Vardanian, Founder and Director of the Hayordi Charitable Foundation

Since 2020, various circumstances have led to a significant increase in the number of foundations operating in our country. There are many foundations with dedicated teams that face difficulties in raising funds.

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Based on our experience, I can say that it is critically important for foundations to present their activities professionally. When a company receives a proposal from a foundation, its first step is to search online to understand what the foundation does, whether it has any affiliations, etc.

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I can cite the cooperation between Hayordi and IDBank as an example. Friends and like-minded people often tell me that, knowing Idram supports our foundation, they prefer to make payments through that digital platform, because within the framework of the “Power of One Dram” initiative, a donation from each transaction is directed toward charitable causes. In this case, it does not even matter which specific foundation receives support during a given month.

Larisa Hovannisian, Founder and CEO of the Teach for Armenia Educational Foundation

I should also mention IDBank and Idram, as they were among the first representatives of Armenia’s private sector to begin working with us. This cooperation has been built in the spirit of genuine partnership.

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 Today, Teach for Armenia is also collaborating with companies in the technology sector. We are not simply asking them for financial support; rather, we offer them to engage their best employees in teaching within communities alongside their professional work.

“The Power of One Dram”
 
Mher Abrahamyan, IDBank Board Chairman 

“The Power of One Dram” is a classic example of corporate social responsibility and, I believe, has helped shape a new culture within the sector.

Over the past six years, “The Power of One Dram” has partnered with more than 50 foundations and non-governmental organizations, allocating more than 300 million drams.

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We firmly believe that even small steps, modest resources, and just one dram can make a meaningful difference in improving people’s quality of life, as well as contributing to the protection of the environment and nature. At the same time, it is crucial who implements these programs. Reliable partners capable of translating their goals into tangible results are needed. It is one thing to have good intentions and goals; it is another to bring them to life.

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We apply a set of criteria and conduct thorough assessments of every organization with which we plan to cooperate.

Impact investments

Nazareth Seferian, Social Entrepreneurship and CSR Expert, Impact Hub Yerevan Board Member

When considering a classic investment, the primary focus is on financial return.

However, when we speak about impact investments, financial return is only one of several factors. It is equally important to understand and measure the social or environmental impact generated by that investment.

We are talking about social enterprises established to address specific social or environmental challenges. This is an important direction for our country.

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The consumer mindset is also very important. We should each understand that, as consumers, we make choices every day – we choose one company or another and, in doing so, contribute to social impact.

Sensitive issues

Vache Vardanian, Founder and Director of the Hayordi Charitable Foundation

International organizations avoid funding initiatives focused on local and national issues, even though our programs are primarily humanitarian and socio-psychological in nature.

We face various challenges during fundraising. For example, we are currently in the middle of a campaign and have postponed our regular summer camp fundraising efforts until after the elections.

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Foundations like ours must be extremely careful in the language we use when working with beneficiaries, as the issues we address are highly sensitive both for beneficiaries and for businesses. Many companies, upon hearing the word “war,” tend to perceive it as a political term rather than as a humanitarian and social issue. With this in mind, over the past six years we have revised our media campaigns, reshaped the presentation of our programs, which has enabled us to move forward.

Learning from each other

Mher Abrahamyan, IDBank Board Chairman 

I believe foundations and NGOs have come to understand that success cannot be achieved simply by sending out emails. They are becoming more responsible, better organized, more targeted, and results-oriented.

At the same time, we have also learned to assess these needs and to understand what our country and target groups need most today.

Nazareth Seferian, Social Entrepreneurship and CSR Expert, Impact Hub Yerevan Board Member

It is important for businesses to speak openly about strategic approaches to corporate responsibility so that the broader public begins to understand what a systematic approach entails, rather than assuming that businesses simply have surplus funds to distribute here and there.

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Measurement mechanisms are equally important. It is not enough to record that, for example, 50 young people completed a training program. We must seek to understand what actually changed in their lives as a result, and how many of them genuinely benefited from the initiative.

Vache Vardanian, Founder and Director of the Hayordi Charitable Foundation

Many companies, when rejecting a foundation’s application, do not explain the reasons behind their decision. I believe that providing such feedback would help foundations reflect on unsuccessful experiences and improve future applications.

Personally, I have also learned to better understand business interests. I often put myself in the position of a company executive and try to view the issues we raise from their perspective.

Read also:

Students of Gyumri Music School got their Ian Gillan and Tony Iommi Awards

“Collective birth certificate” Matenadaran and its like-minded partners

Ralph Yirikian on responsibility, regional development, and the potential of the Diaspora

Arpi Jilavyan

Photos by David Ghahramanyan ]]> Wed, 27 May 2026 08:58:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30746 https://banks.am/en/news//30746 Carolina Alves is Associate Professor in Economics at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London.

For much of 2025 and early 2026, central banks have framed their decision to hold interest rates steady as an exercise in prudence. With inflation once again edging upward even as growth slows, institutions like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have emphasized patience and “data dependence” as the responsible course, an approach shaped above all by lingering fears of recession.

That stance has pushed the policy debate toward a familiar question: How long can central banks resist raising interest rates? But that framing misses the point. The real issue is not the pace of monetary tightening; it is whether policymakers can maintain the fiction that higher interest rates are an effective, or even neutral, response to the inflationary pressures advanced economies currently face.

Today’s inflationary pressures are not being fueled by overheated labor markets or surging consumer demand. They reflect higher energy prices, geopolitical conflict, climate-related disruptions, fragile supply chains, and—increasingly—the pricing power of large corporations. Given that the problem is not excessive borrowing or spending, raising interest rates does little to address inflation’s underlying causes.

These pressures are likely to intensify. The United Arab Emirates’ recent decision to exit OPEC is about more than an internal dispute within a commodity cartel. It signals a deeper structural shift in the political economy of energy, marked by changing power dynamics in global oil markets and the weakening capacity of existing institutions to manage a resource that is both highly financialized and geopolitically fraught.

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Because OPEC’s influence has long rested on its members’ restraint, the UAE’s departure undermines the bloc’s traditional role in managing supply. With one of its largest and most flexible producers breaking away, coordination becomes harder to sustain, increasing market volatility. Oil markets, in turn, are responding less to collective strategy than to fragmentation, geopolitical risk, and unilateral decision-making.

As a result, central banks find themselves in an increasingly uncomfortable position. If they keep interest rates lower for much longer, they risk eroding their credibility as headline inflation ticks upward. Conversely, raising rates too aggressively could deepen recessionary pressures, exacerbate private and public debt burdens, and further squeeze households already battered by rising food, housing, and energy costs.

Against this backdrop, monetary authorities are not freely choosing between clear policy options. They are operating within tight structural constraints imposed by financial markets, fiscal fragility, and political pressures, especially when it comes to unemployment. Markets, for their part, increasingly anticipate rate hikes not because they will solve inflation, but because central banks feel compelled to act, even when their tools are ill-suited to the task.

The distributional consequences of that policy reflex are often overlooked. Higher interest rates act as a disciplinary mechanism: they protect asset values, reward creditors, and shift the burden of adjustment onto workers, mortgage holders, and heavily indebted countries. Casting inflation as a labor-market problem, even though it is driven by energy monopolies, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions, is a political choice, not an economic necessity. In reality, higher interest rates do not eliminate inflation so much as redistribute its costs through higher unemployment, increased household debt, and fiscal retrenchment. This is not an unintended side effect of monetary policy, but the mechanism through which inflation is typically managed.

That reality has done little to shift the terms of debate. Policymakers continue to treat inflation as a monetary problem rather than a structural and distributional one. Central banks respond by tightening financial conditions, but higher interest rates do nothing to reduce food prices, which reflect surging fertilizer and energy costs. They do, however, raise the risk of job losses, mortgage distress, and entrenched poverty.

If inflation remains elevated for years, the problem becomes one of social exhaustion. Households cannot keep absorbing higher costs without long-term damage, from rising indebtedness to poorer nutrition and worsening health outcomes. At that point, inflation is no longer just an economic issue but a source of political instability, potentially leading to a crisis of institutional legitimacy.

These dynamics underscore the limits of central banks’ current approach. As inflation becomes closely tied to climate shocks, war, and the strategic control of essential resources, monetary policy alone cannot stabilize prices without imposing serious social and economic costs. Higher interest rates may suppress demand, but they cannot produce oil and natural gas, unblock ports, repair supply chains, or reduce corporate markups.

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Central banks can delay rate increases, move gradually, or embrace “optional pauses.” But such tactical adjustments do not resolve the underlying contradiction: policymakers are using a technocratic instrument designed for demand management to curb price increases driven by structural and political forces.

Until that contradiction is addressed—through coordinated energy policy, public investment, price regulation, industrial strategy, or active fiscal intervention—interest rates will continue to oscillate without resolving the problem they are meant to solve. Monetary tightening will remain a symbolic gesture to convey control rather than a real solution.

At its core, policymakers’ continued reliance on interest rates to manage crises stemming from the interplay between energy markets, corporate power, and geopolitical conflict reflects how inflation is framed. Treating structural inflation as a demand-management problem allows policymakers to appear decisive while avoiding a more difficult confrontation with those who set prices, control resources, and extract rents. That, too, is a policy choice—one whose social costs are becoming harder to ignore.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org ]]> Sat, 23 May 2026 00:10:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30727 https://banks.am/en/news//30727 Tiago Devesa is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute in Lisbon
 
Jeongmin Seong is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute in Shanghai 

Olivia White, a senior partner at McKinsey & Company, is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute

With conflict disrupting shipping in the Middle East and the future of US tariffs still uncertain, global trade is firmly in the spotlight. But while it certainly matters how these political developments unfold, one must not lose sight of the deeper forces at work in the global economy. 

The past year was among the most tumultuous for global trade in living memory, with US tariff rates rising to their highest level in nearly a century and trade between the United States and China—one of the world’s largest trading corridors—falling by roughly 30%. Yet global trade did not decline. On the contrary, it continued to grow, rerouting in ways consistent with patterns we began measuring three years ago in McKinsey Global Institute research on geopolitically driven shifts in trade. 

We find that the world is not “deglobalizing” so much as reconfiguring—like water finding new channels. As geopolitical tensions escalate and economic security concerns grow, companies redirect investment and redesign supply chains. 

In our latest analysis of 2025 trade flows, what stands out most is how resilient US demand for foreign goods remained. Still, while Americans kept buying from abroad, what they purchased was different. The US imported more chips and data-center equipment, but fewer autos and less energy. Sourcing shifted from mainland China to Vietnam, Taiwan, and other Asian economies. 

It would be natural to assume that tariffs were the driving force behind these and other shifts. But that explanation is incomplete, because the race to develop AI has also emerged as a powerful new factor, accounting for about one-third of the growth in global trade in 2025. This development has received far less attention than AI’s implications for economic growth, financial markets, or jobs, perhaps because much AI-linked commerce is concentrated among geopolitically aligned economies. 

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Another underappreciated factor is the extent to which China’s economy has changed. It is still the world’s export engine, but it has leaned further into its role as the “factory to the factories”: a supplier of the machinery and components that power manufacturing elsewhere, particularly in emerging economies. Shipments of Chinese-made industrial inputs rose by more than $175 billion in 2025, led by exports of intermediate goods such as chips or smartphone parts, which grew by 9%—twice as fast as China’s overall exports. 

Meanwhile, as access to the US market shrank for some industries, firms sought new markets for consumer goods. To keep volumes growing, exporters of consumer products cut prices by an average of 8%, and these changes cascaded unevenly through regional economies. 

For example, the ASEAN region expanded its role as a critical manufacturing hub, creating new connections in the shifting geopolitical landscape. All told, its trade with every major region increased, with exports growing by 14%—more than twice the pace of global trade. At the same time, India captured a large share of US smartphone demand once met by China; and Brazil expanded its commodity exports as China shifted purchases away from the US. 

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Europe, by contrast, struggled to adjust. The European Union faced intensifying competition from Chinese imports, while higher US tariffs constrained key exports. Excluding a rush of gold and pharmaceutical sales ahead of anticipated tariffs, Europe’s trade balance with the US and China deteriorated by roughly $80 billion. Stronger trade with other markets offset only around half that decline. The strain was especially visible in autos. For the first time ever, Germany, Europe’s auto powerhouse, imported more cars from China than it exported there. 

It is understandable that today’s headlines feel like proof that geopolitics now sets the rules of trade. But, again, the story is incomplete. Geopolitics is indeed reshaping the trading map, but longer-term shifts in technology and economic development are determining what the world builds and buys—as the surge in trade linked to the AI boom attests. Amid tariff hikes, legal uncertainty, and growing trade restrictions, firms raced to secure chips and servers, along with cooling systems and the other equipment required to build and power data centers. 

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Fundamentally, global trade is being reshaped by long-term forces, from technology to shifting production networks and emerging-market growth. Making sense of what comes next requires a broad view that accounts for how these forces interact under different scenarios, rather than focusing on any single disruption. 

Of course, geopolitical shocks will remain a feature of the system. The ability to adjust as conditions evolve will matter just as much as long-term positioning in a world where trade is still expanding, but along more contested lines. 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Wed, 20 May 2026 07:00:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30714 https://banks.am/en/news//30714 Kaushik Basu, a former chief economist of the World Bank and chief economic adviser to the Government of India, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution

As the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran become evident, policymakers around the world are running out of patience. The recent Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington made this abundantly clear, with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves lamenting the “folly” of a war that is “not ours.” 

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But much of the cost will be borne by the United States itself. The immediate effects are visible: a sharp rise in gas prices, inflation climbing to a two-year high, and growing concerns that, as consumers cut back on spending to offset higher costs, unemployment will rise. While these short-term shocks are serious, a major risk that has received less attention is that the dollar could lose its status as the world’s primary trade and reserve currency. 

The decline of a reserve currency is a slow process. The British pound ceded its dominance to the US dollar over roughly two decades, beginning in the 1920s. As Barry Eichengreen has noted, the Roman denarius—arguably the world’s first international currency—also unraveled over a long period, starting when Emperor Nero debased it in the first century CE. 

Any international currency ultimately depends on trust. I witnessed this during my time as chief economic adviser to the Indian government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. On August 5, 2011, S&P downgraded the US long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+, fueling fears of immediate capital flight. Instead, the opposite happened: money flowed into the US economy. In the face of global turbulence, investors trusted that the US would honor its obligations, no matter the cost. 

That trust, a cornerstone of soft power, is rapidly eroding. Samantha Power, the former administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), highlighted this in a recent lecture at Cornell University, where she criticized the Trump administration’s decision to dismantle the agency. The abrupt and “heartless” manner in which it was shut down, she said, halted humanitarian aid without warning, leading to immense suffering among populations around the world that had depended on its continuity. 

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The closure of USAID, alongside Trump’s military adventures in Iran and Venezuela and relentless attacks on long-standing allies like Canada and Denmark, has cast a shadow over America’s global standing and trustworthiness. This, in turn, puts the dollar’s hegemonic status at risk. 

To understand the potential cost, consider seigniorage: because the dollar is globally trusted, the Federal Reserve can print a $10 bill for less than seven cents, and it will be accepted at full value around the world. As empires from Rome to Britain have shown, issuing the world’s leading currency allows a country to create value almost out of thin air. Losing that capacity would slow economic growth. 

Unless US policy reverses course, this year may go down in history as the moment the US dollar began to lose its status as the world’s currency. 

This raises the question: Which currency will replace the dollar? The renminbi appears to be the strongest candidate. A decade ago, the Chinese currency gained credibility when the International Monetary Fund included it in the basket of global currencies underpinning Special Drawing Rights (the Fund’s reserve asset), but it was still widely dismissed as “no match” for the greenback. Today, the prospect of renminbi primacy no longer seems unthinkable. 

Yet China’s ability to assume that global role is far from assured. As economist Qiao Liu observed in his 2016 book Corporate China 2.0, the country combines an “authoritative political regime” with more flexible institutional arrangements in which “relationships still matter,” a hybrid that does not readily inspire the kind of global confidence a reserve currency requires. 

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Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to understand this dynamic. In a 2024 speech, Xi emphasized the need to internationalize the renminbi to bolster China’s soft power, calling for a “powerful currency that can be widely used in international trade, investment, and foreign-exchange markets and attain reserve currency status.” But the main obstacle to reserve-currency status for the renminbi—the maintenance of capital controls—remains firmly in place. 

The strongest rebuke of Trump’s policies over the past year came from an unexpected source: King Charles III. His address to Congress on April 28, delivered with characteristic British wit and restraint, sent a clear message that the US is on the wrong path, one that could destroy its global standing. 

There was, however, cause for optimism. The repeated bursts of bipartisan applause Charles received from members of Congress suggested they were already aware of America’s predicament. 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Sat, 16 May 2026 09:32:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30684 https://banks.am/en/news//30684 Camila Villard Duran is Associate Professor of Law at ESSCA School of Management

The development of payment infrastructure in emerging-market economies (EMEs)—from instant payment systems in retail markets to wholesale central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for cross-border interbank settlement—is part of a broader technological transformation. But the intense scrutiny these initiatives face from the United States suggests that what is at stake is not only technical supremacy, but monetary power itself. 

Changes to how payments are executed imply a shift in control over the critical infrastructure through which money circulates, with consequences for the exercise of monetary sovereignty. While sovereignty in monetary affairs was traditionally understood as the authority to issue currency, it expanded over time to include oversight of banking systems and financial flows. In an increasingly digitalized world, however, sovereignty now hinges on the mechanisms underpinning payments and settlements, and the data generated by financial transactions. 

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This shift is especially visible in EMEs, where formal sovereignty has long coexisted with structural dependence. For years, the dollar’s dominance has rested not only on its status as a global currency, but also on a dense network of privately governed infrastructure—the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), the New York Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS), and the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS)—that shape how cross-border payments and financial settlements are conducted. Far from being neutral conduits, these US-dominated systems embed geopolitical power into the routine functioning of global finance, enabling “weaponized interdependence” through sanctions, exclusion, and control over financial flows. 

Brazil’s Pix is a case in point. An instant payment platform created and managed by the Central Bank of Brazil, Pix has rapidly become a central pillar of the country’s financial architecture, surpassing payment cards in transaction volume. It embodies a governance model in which the state manages both payment rules and the data generated by transactions—an increasingly important source of economic and strategic power. 

This has clearly spooked the US. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) opened an investigation into Brazil and included Pix in its 2026 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers under the broader category of “non-market policies and practices” that may generate “economic and national security risks” for the US. The report positions state-led payment infrastructure, data-localization measures, and digital regulations as potential distortions of competition that disadvantage foreign firms, particularly US financial-service providers. 

But Brazil is not an isolated case. The USTR report expresses similar concerns about efforts in India, China, Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, Pakistan, Algeria, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Thailand to develop domestic payment systems and strengthen regulatory control over digital and financial infrastructure, including through data-localization requirements. 

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This trend reflects a broader global shift toward a state-led approach to building financial infrastructure for the digital economy. Domestic payment systems, including Pix and India’s UPI, should therefore be understood as part of a wider movement among EMEs to reclaim control over the rails on which money and financial data move. 

Such a structural shift becomes even more consequential at the cross-border level, unlocking the potential for connecting domestic instant payment systems (like the Bank for International Settlements-led Project Nexus) and, crucially, using CBDCs for wholesale transactions. 

Projects such as mBridge—bringing together China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia with initial support from the BIS—as well as emerging BRICS+ initiatives, illustrate how CBDCs can be used to redesign international payment infrastructure. By integrating messaging, clearing, and settlement, a single, state-governed platform may reduce reliance on traditional intermediaries and enable direct settlement in local currencies. 

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More importantly, this approach embeds public authority into the technological architecture of payments and settlements, expressed in code, protocols, and governance rules. Monetary sovereignty, in this context, becomes infrastructural: it is exercised through the design and control of systems that support cross-border financial flows. 

For EMEs, this represents a strategic opportunity. By reducing dependence on dollar-based infrastructure and enabling settlement in local currencies, multi-CBDC platforms and a standardized protocol linking domestic instant payment systems provide a pathway, albeit still limited, to expand the external dimension of monetary sovereignty. 

To be sure, these developments do not signal the end of dollar dominance. The structural foundations of today’s US-led system, from deep and liquid domestic financial markets to strong network effects and global demand for dollar-denominated assets, are robust. The rapid expansion of dollar-backed stablecoins may even reinforce this dominance in the digital realm. 

But a more fragmented and contested landscape is emerging. The new initiatives are reconfiguring the existing system at the margins: creating alternative channels, redistributing power (albeit to a limited degree), and, above all, demonstrating that infrastructure, not currency, is the primary terrain of monetary competition. 

This evolution has two important implications. First, future conflicts in the international monetary system are likely to center on standards, platforms, and data governance rather than exchange rates or reserve currencies. Second, EMEs are no longer merely passive recipients of global financial standards; they are becoming drivers of institutional and technological innovation. 

In this context, the central question is no longer who issues money, but who designs and governs the infrastructure through which it moves. The answer will not be determined by technological efficiency alone. It will be shaped by law, institutional choices, and geopolitical strategy—and will ultimately define the future distribution of monetary power. 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Tue, 12 May 2026 00:10:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30667 https://banks.am/en/news//30667 Mariana Mazzucato, a professor at University College London, is Founding Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose.

Lara Merling is a research fellow on industrial strategy at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose.

In the run-up to this year’s International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings, the one story that cut through the noise was that the World Bank had embraced industrial policy after decades of advising against it. But while much of the ensuing debate focused on whether this “U-turn” is good or bad, overdue or dangerous, few pondered the fundamental question: What has actually changed? 

The Bank has merely affirmed what many of us have long argued: the framework it has promoted since 1993—when its East Asian Miracle report cautioned against industrial-policy tools—has not served developing countries well. Such advice, World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill recently observed, “has the practical value of a floppy disk today.” Yet in his defense of the report, he also made clear how limited the shift remains. Industrial policy, he argued, should be “targeted and temporary,” an exception to a market-led model, rather than a tool for driving broader economic transformations. 

The Bank’s latest work confirms that industrial policy is more replicable across income levels and institutional contexts than the old consensus admitted, with a toolkit that extends beyond tariffs and subsidies. Public support for private actors, the Bank now argues, should come with carrots and sticks, including withdrawal of finance from firms that underperform. This new position aligns with arguments we made in The Entrepreneurial State and through more recent work on the role of missions and conditionalities. 

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But new conclusions do not automatically produce new economics. The Bank still treats the state as a mere fixer of market failures, rather than as a market creator and shaper. The question is not whether governments should intervene after markets have failed. It is what kind of economy we want to build in the first place. Which public purposes should guide investment, and how can institutions govern the public-private bargain so that value is created collectively and shared fairly? 

Viewed in these terms, the Bank still falls short, because it treats fiscal-policy space as a fixed constraint within which to optimize, rather than as a set of institutional capacities that can be developed. As a result, the Bank would still organize industrial policy only around specific sectors and considerations of comparative advantage. But the energy transition, water and food security, public health, and economic resilience are not sectoral issues. They call for economy-wide missions. 

This matters now that the Bank itself is adopting “mission” language. Mission 300, with a focus on African electricity access, and Water Forward, launched at the Spring Meetings to address water security, do take on major systemic, cross-sectoral challenges. But our assessment of 30 African national energy compacts finds a gap: the ambition is systemic, but the architecture remains sectoral. 

Nor is the World Bank an isolated case. The IMF’s own economists have similarly documented how austerity and liberalization fail to deliver. Yet these findings have yet to translate consistently into new operational practices. 

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That needs to change. The IMF and the World Bank sit at the center of an international order whose default advice still reflects an economics not supported by real-world evidence. What they model, measure, and recommend shapes how development and macroeconomic policy are done around the world. They help determine who has access to liquidity, and on what terms; whose debt is treated as sustainable; whose public investment is seen as credible; and whose policy autonomy is constrained. 

The wealthy countries that fund and control these institutions are not exempt from the consequences of the same economics. For decades, the same flawed assumptions shaped policy in Europe and the United States, suppressing public investment, weakening public services, treating wages as costs rather than as fuel for aggregate demand, and leaving households exposed to shocks that markets failed to manage. 

The resulting affordability crisis has now become a political one. The economics that constrained development policy abroad—hollowing out public capacity and narrowing what governments can do—helped fuel the far right at home. 

Europe’s response to the 2022 energy shock shows what is at stake. From 2022 to 2025, EU member states and the United Kingdom incurred $1.8 trillion in additional costs, much of it absorbed by households and public budgets, while the shareholders of firms charging higher prices benefited. Spain points to an alternative. Having invested in energy security as a mission, rather than as a subsidy category, it now generates more than half of its electricity from renewables, leaving it more insulated than its neighbors from the latest energy shock. 

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Making such resilience the default, rather than the exception, requires an economic framework that governments can apply consistently. The Global Progressive Mobilisation, convened by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, recently brought together progressive governments from around the world to start shaping a new economic consensus. 

Its foundations are clear. We need public institutions with the capacity to invest, coordinate, and govern markets in the public interest. We need finance designed around missions, not leverage ratios, and policy frameworks that treat fiscal space not as a market-determined ceiling, but as something built by productive investment. And we need measures of value oriented around the common good. 

A Global Council on New Economics for the 21st Century, co-chaired by one of us (Mazzucato) and First Vice-President of the Government of Spain, Carlos Cuerpo, will bring these elements together. Our goal is to translate the new economics into operational principles organized around justice, equality, sustainability, and global solidarity. The argument for a new economics is being won. Now we must show what comes next. 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Wed, 06 May 2026 17:54:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30644 https://banks.am/en/news//30644 Jazz is often described as freedom, yet inside it is built on strict discipline. The same duality exists in business, especially where long-term capital management is concerned.
It is at this intersection that the partnership between Wilco Wealth Management Company and the Ulikhanian Jazz Club was formed.
    
Wilco often defines its role as a “co-pilot” – a partner for those who think not only about today, but also about decades ahead.

“Building a sustainable future for capital also requires nurturing the environment in which it exists,” said Olga Omelchenko, the company’s deputy CEO.

In recent weeks, not only the program but also the sound at the Ulikhanian Jazz Club has evolved. The venue has upgraded its speakers and begun improving the hall’s acoustics.

Concerts featuring international musicians have been organized to foster exchange and build new connections. According to the club’s director, Vardan Ulikhanyan, the technical upgrade had long been postponed due to financial constraints.

“The piano came from our home, the drums were brought by our drummer, and the equipment we had could no longer ensure proper quality,” he admitted.

According to him, business involvement is a practical necessity.

“Cultural institutions like this simply cannot develop on their own,” Vardan Ulikhanyan said.

Wilco underscores that its role is to provide support, with no interference in the creative process.

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“Creative freedom and the choice of artists remain exclusively the club’s prerogative,” Olga Omelchenko emphasized. 

The partnership is grounded in a convergence of values. The company notes that their approach to wealth management – long-term planning and flexible decisions – is comparable to jazz thinking.

“Jazz is a form of music where mastery goes hand in hand with the ability to improvise. These values resonate strongly with us,” she noted.

The Ulikhanian Jazz Club has functioned as a community platform since its founding, bringing together both experienced and emerging musicians. Over time, it has fostered an environment where young performers can share the stage with professionals.

“We were simply creating what we wanted, together,” said Vardan Ulikhanyan, noting that a stable musical community has taken shape over the years.

The club is already hosting concerts with Wilco’s support. In addition, regular meetings with jazz musicians are planned to address sector challenges and explore solutions. The first such meeting is scheduled for April 30 – International Jazz Day.

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The collaboration also has informal aspects. A new cocktail inspired by the New Orleans Sazerac has been created and is already on the menu, reflecting how different cultural layers intersect within the same space.

The importance of such cooperation is also driven by the problems in the field. Jazz life in Armenia remains largely concentrated in Yerevan, while regions lack the necessary infrastructure.

“There is a need for halls – even in large cities – to be equipped with professional technical equipment and high-quality instruments,” noted Vardan Ulikhanyan.

He added that audience size is another constraint in the regions, leading organizers to prioritize other genres. As a result, visits by international musicians are often limited to one or two concerts in Yerevan.

In these circumstances, the club emphasizes the development of festivals and the creation of new events in the regions to build an audience base.

Another issue is audience perception. According to Vardan Ulikhanyan, jazz in Armenia is often treated as background or “fashionable” music, which does not reflect its essence.

“Live music holds an intangible depth – the musician senses the breath and mood of every person in the hall. I am convinced that once the audience ‘catches’ this magic and becomes part of it, they will be drawn into jazz,” he said.

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Ulikhanyan also stressed that audience behavior directly influences the course and energy of a performance.

For Wilco, such initiatives are also a way to express their values.

“Such partnerships allow us to demonstrate our values through action and be engaged with the community,” said Olga Omelchenko.

According to her, supporting culture also contributes to the perception of the brand as a long-term thinking partner. Ultimately, the key indicator of success will be the sustainable development of Armenia’s jazz community.

Culture-business cooperation in Armenia is still evolving. As Vardan Ulikhanyan noted, while charitable models are relatively developed, systematic business engagement remains limited.

In this context, such collaborations represent an effort to shape a new model – one in which business participation moves beyond sponsorship toward sustained, long-term partnership.

Astghik Hovhannesov ]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2026 22:30:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30637 https://banks.am/en/news//30637 Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, is a member of the Club of Rome’s Transformational Economics Commission and Co-Chair of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.

The Ouroboros, the ancient image of a serpent devouring its own tail, has long symbolized self-defeating strategies. It is thus an apt metaphor for US President Donald Trump’s current policies. His reckless and illegal war against Iran is the clearest example, but his administration’s enthusiastic embrace of cryptocurrencies represents a subtler, slower-burning expression of the same self-destructive tendency.

Unlike conventional money, cryptocurrencies are generally not legal tender and are not government-backed. Their price is largely determined by market demand, much of it driven by their ability to obscure transactions and bypass regulations, taxes, and legal oversight. This makes them attractive not only to speculators, whose activity fuels their extreme volatility, but also to criminals and other bad actors.

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Since returning to the White House, Trump has positioned himself as one of the industry’s most prominent champions. This reflects both the massive campaign contributions he has received from major crypto investors and his own business interests: members of the Trump family have reportedly earned roughly $5 billion from various crypto-related schemes.

In service of these interests, the Trump administration has aggressively deregulated crypto markets while promoting dollar-pegged stablecoins through measures like the GENIUS Act. At the same time, it has rejected the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), a more stable and regulated alternative to crypto, which is already being explored or adopted by countries like China.

By weakening regulatory oversight, these moves have introduced new financial risks. Enforcement actions against crypto firms have been scaled back, even in cases involving clear wrongdoing. Binance, which has business ties to the Trump family, is a prime example. Its founder, Changpeng Zhao, pleaded guilty to facilitating money laundering and served a four-month prison sentence, only to be pardoned by Trump. This has likely emboldened the crypto sector’s most dubious actors, undermining investor protection and financial stability.

But the consequences of Trump’s pro-crypto agenda extend beyond financial markets. Cryptocurrencies create an alternative financial infrastructure that can be used to evade economic sanctions, the United States’ tool of choice for bullying other countries. Their spread also poses a clear threat to the dollar’s global dominance.

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In this sense, cryptocurrencies have become a geopolitical Ouroboros. Their defining feature, opacity, has disproportionately benefited America’s adversaries. In 2025 alone, illegal cryptocurrency transactions increased by more than 160%, largely driven by countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The Trump administration’s support for dollar-pegged stablecoins has further accelerated that trend.

Russia was among the first to seize the opportunity. After its central-bank assets were frozen by former US President Joe Biden’s administration, the country turned to cryptocurrency exchanges to circumvent economic sanctions, facilitate re-exports of sensitive goods through intermediaries like Kyrgyzstan, and finance the procurement of low-cost military drones deployed in Ukraine.

It has since moved to formalize this approach. In July 2024, the Russian Duma legalized the use of cryptocurrencies in international settlements. A month later, President Vladimir Putin announced the legalization of crypto mining, which the Trump administration has also promoted at home.

The same dynamic is now playing out in Iran. When the US and Israel launched their war in late February, the Iranian regime had already expanded its use of cryptocurrencies. By 2025, its crypto sector was estimated to be worth $7.8 billion, with entities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accounting for more than half of all inflows.

More recently, Iran has made cryptocurrencies central to its efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, charging shipping companies $1 per oil barrel—payable in renminbi, Bitcoin, or the stablecoin Tether—in exchange for safe passage. On a single day this month, 15-18 tankers passed through the Strait; at roughly $2 million per ship, these tolls generated an estimated $36 million for the beleaguered Iranian regime.

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In other words, a strategic maritime chokepoint is now a hub for crypto transactions. Some of these transactions have reportedly been conducted on the TRON blockchain, which can settle payments in under three seconds. TRON, founded by the Chinese developer Justin Sun, has also been linked to ventures associated with the Trump family.

Taken together, these developments point to a remarkable shift. US policies, shaped by crypto financiers and pursued in the name of innovation, have expanded and legitimized the infrastructure used to evade American sanctions. The irony is hard to miss. For Iranians caught in the middle of a brutal conflict, and for ordinary people around the world facing rising energy and food prices, the consequences are all too real.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:43:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30631 https://banks.am/en/news//30631 Laura Carvalho is Director of Economic and Climate Prosperity at Open Society Foundations and Associate Professor of Economics at the University of São Paulo.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what the International Monetary Fund calls a “global yet asymmetric” rupture, disrupting the flow of roughly one-quarter of oil, one-fifth of liquefied natural gas, and one-third of fertilizer supplies. Energy and fertilizer prices have risen, supply chains have rerouted, and financial conditions have tightened unevenly around the world. 

Import-dependent economies in Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe have been hit hardest, with many facing higher bond spreads and credit downgrades. As central banks weigh their responses to surging fuel and food prices, the rise in global interest rates is squeezing what little fiscal and policy space developing countries still have. 

But if the “Hormuz shock” has laid bare economic vulnerabilities, it has also illuminated something else: the stark differences in how countries absorb turbulence. One of the most salient fault lines in the world nowadays is not simply between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, but between countries whose energy systems leave them exposed and those who began building energy resilience long before the crisis arrived.

Spain’s renewables revolution offers the starkest illustration of what is possible. Its rapid wind and solar growth has cut the share of hours in which gas sets the domestic electricity price from 75% in 2019 to just 19% in 2025—the sharpest reduction among Europe’s major gas-reliant power markets. While wholesale electricity prices in Germany and Italy have been well above €150 ($177) per megawatt-hour during the Hormuz shock, Spain’s average wholesale price for 2026 is projected to be €60–70/MWh.

Brazil’s extensive biofuels infrastructure has provided a similar buffer, though by a different route. Tens of millions of Brazilian drivers can choose between 100% sugarcane-based ethanol or gasoline blended with 30% biofuel, supported by one of the world’s largest fleets of flexible-fuel vehicles. Because domestic gasoline includes a substantial biofuel share, fuel refined by the state-run energy major Petrobras has remained dramatically cheaper than imported gasoline equivalents, cushioning consumers from global oil volatility. Brazilian gasoline prices rose just 5% in March, compared with roughly 30% in the United States, and Mexico’s president has publicly expressed interest in Brazil’s ethanol technologies, including agave-based production. 

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China, too, has proven more resilient than many would have guessed. After a decade of investment, renewables account for nearly 40% of its electricity generation, up from 26% a decade ago, and it has amassed strategic petroleum reserves of more than 1.2 billion barrels. As a result, Goldman Sachs has revised China’s GDP growth forecast down by only half as much as that of the US, identifying renewable-energy dominance as one of the “shields” protecting its economy.

No wonder energy analysts are describing the Iran war as “Asia’s Ukraine moment.” Just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 compelled Europe to reduce its reliance on natural gas, the Hormuz shock is pushing Asian countries to cut their oil dependencies. Moreover, cleaner alternatives are now significantly cheaper and more readily available than they were in 2022. 

The lesson is clear: vulnerability is a function of structural and policy choices, not just of trade balances. Every country must ask how much of its energy system it controls, how diversified its supplies are, and whether it has built sufficient insulation between global commodity markets and ordinary people. For fossil-fuel-dependent economies that neglected the energy transition, there is an additional warning: if this crisis accelerates other countries’ shift to renewables, stranded assets and shrinking export markets may compound the pain of future shocks.

As many governments wait for multilateral institutions to respond, realities on the ground are changing fast. At the same time, oil and gas producers have a rare window of opportunity. As the University of Massachusetts Amherst economists Isabella M. Weber and Gregor Semieniuk have argued, fossil-fuel price shocks are redistribution episodes: costs are imposed on the entire population while profits flow only to shareholders. That is why windfall profit taxes, such as the one recently championed by five EU finance ministers, are so urgently needed.

The additional revenues could serve two urgent priorities. The first is consumer protection. Higher energy prices are a regressive tax on the poor. Without active intervention, this crisis will deepen inequality within oil-exporting countries, just as it does elsewhere. Short-term subsidies, targeted energy vouchers, and price-stabilization mechanisms are legitimate uses of windfall receipts, precisely because the shock is temporary and the revenues will not last.

The second priority is structural investment. State-owned enterprises like Petrobras have already begun investing in biofuels and low-carbon technologies, and the Hormuz crisis could provide them with additional resources for this purpose.

Likewise, sovereign wealth funds offer a proven mechanism for institutionalizing the link between windfall revenues and long-term energy-transition goals. The Malaysian sovereign wealth fund, for example, has committed RM1.5 billion ($378 million) to decarbonize industrial parks and is building green investment platforms targeting renewable energy, storage, and e-mobility. Indonesia’s new Danantara sovereign wealth fund has struck agreements to develop renewable energy and green hydrogen facilities, directly linking resource wealth to clean-technology value chains.

Even Senegal, a relatively small producer, has established the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Fund through its sovereign vehicle FONSIS. It is mobilizing equity investments in renewables across the West African Economic and Monetary Union, as well as positioning itself to channel future gas revenues into green industrialization.

This is how countries shift from exposure to autonomy: by transforming yesterday’s rents into tomorrow’s capital base. Seizing this moment means converting temporary windfalls into durable assets and treating green industrial strategy as necessary for national resilience. The countries that act now will be glad they did when the next crisis arrives.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2026 09:41:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30613 https://banks.am/en/news//30613 At the Fast-Forward 2026 conference held on April 6, 2026, Sevada Baghdyan, Partner at Boyden Armenia, presented the results of a study on directors from 200 large taxpayer companies in Armenia, which we had promised to present in a separate article.

Below is the Boyden Armenia publication, provided to Banks.am on an exclusive basis.

***

"Boyden Armenia has conducted a comprehensive analysis of the profiles of CEOs leading Armenia's top 200 taxpayer companies. Going forward, this study will be conducted annually. For us, this is an important opportunity to formalize and share one of the most compelling aspects of our daily work with the broader professional community," notes Sevada Baghdyan, Partner at Boyden Armenia․

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The leadership landscape in Armenia remains heavily male-dominated, with 95.3% of CEOs being men. There is also a notable age gap: female executives are generally younger, with an average age of 46, compared to 49.8 for their male counterparts.

The data reveals that 66.9% of these companies opt for non-shareholder executives, while in 33.1% of cases, the shareholder personally holds the CEO position. Notably, shareholder executives tend to be older, averaging 52.8 years of age, compared to 48 years for non-shareholder executives.

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In companies where the CEO is not a shareholder, the selection of a new leader is primarily driven by internal resources:

•    53.5% were promoted from within the organization.
•    46.5% were recruited externally.

In developed economies and established corporations, this ratio typically stands at 70/30 in favor of internal appointments. This discrepancy suggests that leadership development and succession planning processes in Armenian companies still have significant room for improvement.

Prior to their current appointments, the non-shareholder CEOs of the top 200 taxpayer companies gained their primary experience in the following sectors or roles:

•    Sales: 29%
•    Finance: 27%
•    Director: 16%
•    Civil Service: 7.5%
•    Deputy Director: 6.5%
•    Engineering: 4.3%
•    Other: 9.7%

According to Boyden Armenia’s observations over the last three years, there is a surging market demand for directors with financial backgrounds and those with prior CEO experience. Consequently, these percentages are expected to shift in future rankings of the top 200 taxpayers.

The most significant disparity is found in the duration of tenure. Currently, shareholder executives have held their positions for an average of 17.2 years. In contrast, this figure drops sharply to 6.4 years for non-shareholder executives. Regarding gender, men have been at the helm for an average of 10.3 years, while women average 6.3 years.

About Boyden 

Founded in the United States in 1947, Boyden is a global leader in executive search and leadership consulting, operating in more than 45 countries. The Armenian office supports local and international organizations in identifying top-tier executive talent, forming boards of directors, and providing leadership advisory services to drive long-term business growth and sustainability. ]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2026 08:00:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30602 https://banks.am/en/news//30602 We are presenting to your attention the summary of the results of the Armenian banking sector for 1Q 2026, prepared and published exclusively on Banks.am by a specialized consulting company RUMELS Management Solutions.

Ruben Melikyan has more than 25 years’ experience as a successful c-level executive (CEO/CFO), with a successful track record leading diverse management teams in different areas, like audit, micro-finance, retail, FMCG and banking. Ruben Melikyan is an ACCA member; he graduated from Oxford University (EMBA) and received a Certificate on “Advanced Corporate Valuation” from NYU.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the main financial indicators of the Armenian banking system in 1Q 2026.

Net Profit

The total net profit of all Armenian banks during 1Q 2026 is equal to 103.5 bln AMD, which is by 2,7 bln AMD, or by 2,6% more than it was recorded in the same period in 2025.

The largest profit was recorded by Ardshinbank, amounting to 33.1 bln AMD. 

All banks registered a profit during the mentioned period.

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Total loan portfolio

The total loan portfolio of the banking sector during 1Q 2026 increased by 4,1%.

As of 31.03.2026, the total loan portfolio amounted to 8.011 bln AMD and its share in total assets is 61%.

The mentioned total loan portfolio includes retail and corporate loan portfolios.

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Market share of 5 largest banks (Ameriabank, Ardshinbank, Acba bank, Amio bank and Inecobank) by total loan portfolio is 64.5%.
Ameriabank has the largest market share – 22%.

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Bonds

During 1Q 2026, the total balance of bonds issued by Armenian banks increased by 296 bln AMD, or 56,3%.

As of 31.03.2026, the total balance of issued bonds amounts to 823 bln AMD.

13 out of 17 banks have issued bonds.

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Total Equity

During 1Q 2026, the total equity of the Armenian banking sector increased by 123 bln AMD, or 5,6% and amounts to 2.299 bln AMD. 

This increase is mainly due to generated profit in 1Q 2026, amounting to 103.5 bln AMD and increase of share capital of Amio bank, amounting to 20 bln AMD.

During 1Q 2026, only Armeconombank declared dividend amounting to 220 mln AMD.

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The comprehensive analyses of the RA banking system’s results for 1Q-2026 and previous periods are available at the following link․ ]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2026 11:05:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30585 https://banks.am/en/news//30585 Morten Nyboe Tabor is Co-Founder and Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking Center on Knightian Uncertainty

The war in Iran has upended the global economic outlook overnight. Oil supply routes have been shut down and prices have surged. Every central bank, finance ministry, and economic forecaster is scrambling to answer the same question: What happens next?

But before rushing to produce new numbers, we need to know what kind of uncertainty we are facing. Are our standard forecasting tools up to the task, or do they offer false comfort?

From the mid-1980s until the pandemic, the global economy was remarkably stable. Inflation was low and predictable. Central banks had credible targets. Supply chains functioned smoothly. Geopolitical arrangements, while never static, evolved gradually. The mechanisms by which disruptions propagated through the economy remained roughly constant.

In that world, the standard approach to forecasting worked well: produce a single baseline projection and wrap it in a fan chart showing the range of uncertainty around it. The fan chart said, in effect: we know how the economy works, we just don’t know the exact numbers. The future would resemble the past, give or take some noise.

That world is gone.

The pandemic disrupted supply chains in ways no fixed model anticipated. The post-pandemic inflation surge was the most significant forecasting failure in central banking in decades. And now, the war in the Middle East is wreaking havoc with the energy sector.

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Each of these events is not just a large disturbance hitting an otherwise stable system. They herald a change in how the system works.

The economist Frank Knight grasped the implications of this distinction in 1921. Risk, he argued, is uncertainty that you can quantify: while you can’t predict the outcome, you know the range of possibilities and can assign probabilities to them. True uncertainty—nowadays called Knightian uncertainty—is different: you cannot assign it a probability, because the situation itself may be changing in ways you have not seen before. The economy undergoes structural shifts that, because they are genuinely novel, rule out using the past to estimate future outcomes.

The Iran war is a case in point. We knew a Middle East conflict was possible, and previous oil crises and energy-price surges offer some guidance about the consequences. But the specific combination of actors, escalation dynamics, and consequences for global energy markets has no precedent—and the differences from previous episodes are precisely what matters most.

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A fan chart cannot capture this. It assumes that future uncertainty can be quantified by past forecast errors. It says: I know the story, but not the numbers. But when the story itself is in question, a wider fan chart is not the answer. 

If we cannot reduce the uncertainty to a single probability distribution, what should we do instead? The answer is not to abandon economic forecasting and seek an oracle. It is to change the format. Roman Frydman of New York University and I recently proposed a rigorous approach that aims to guide forecasting under Knightian uncertainty.

Instead of one baseline with a fan chart, forecasters should present a small set of scenarios—not as hedging, not as decoration, but as structured reasoning about genuinely different futures. Each scenario should include a narrative explaining the economic logic, a conditional forecast showing what follows if that scenario plays out, and a specification of what incoming data would shift the assessment toward one scenario or another. Designing good scenarios is the hard part—it requires practical economic judgment, not just statistical technique.

For the Iran war, this could mean two or three scenarios. In a containment scenario, for example, the conflict remains localized, oil supply disruption is temporary, and energy prices return toward pre-war levels within months. In an escalation scenario, the war spreads, energy infrastructure is damaged, oil prices settle at permanently higher levels, and second-round effects on wages and inflation expectations change the policy calculus—or even trigger a fundamental restructuring of global energy trade.

Each of these implies different trajectories for inflation, interest rates, and growth dynamics. No single baseline with a fan chart can capture these qualitatively different futures. Scenarios can.

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Some of the world’s major central banks are already moving in this direction, driven by the hard lesson of the post-pandemic inflation surge, which blew through every fan chart they published. Ben Bernanke’s landmark review of the Bank of England recommended eliminating fan charts and publishing scenarios instead.

In March, the European Central Bank did just that, replacing its fan charts with three alternative scenarios and explicitly stating that its standard probabilistic tools would not “provide a reliable indication of the high uncertainty.” As ECB President Christine Lagarde put it: “We find ourselves yet again in a different world, whose contours are not yet clear.”

The ECB is not alone. Sweden’s Riksbank now publishes alternative scenarios without attaching probabilities. The Bank of Canada has gone further, dropping its baseline forecast altogether in early 2025, when no single projection was credible.

The tools for forecasting under Knightian uncertainty exist. Scenarios are not a second-best substitute for a single forecast with a fan chart. When the economy is undergoing structural change, they are the intellectually honest format—able to represent what we can and cannot know about the future.

In a changing world, credibility does not come from being right all the time—no one will be. It comes from being transparent about the possible futures you consider relevant, adjusting your views as new data arrives, and doing what you said you would do when a specific scenario materializes.

While some central banks have led the way, much of the forecasting profession—and the economic theory that underpins it—still defaults to single baselines that treat the future as a probabilistic replica of the past. But when the structure of the economy changes in unforeseeable ways, forecasters must acknowledge that many futures are possible. The right response to Knightian uncertainty is not wider fan charts, but scenarios that take seriously that we can know only that the world has changed, not how.

This article is presented on Banks.am in partnership with Unibank.

 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org  ]]> Sat, 18 Apr 2026 08:29:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30593 https://banks.am/en/news//30593 On April 15, 2026, representatives of the public and private sectors, civil society, and women entrepreneurs gathered on one platform in Yerevan to discuss how to make the entrepreneurial environment for women in Armenia stronger and more inclusive.

The public-private dialogue, titled “Entrepreneurial Ecosystem and Women’s Economic Empowerment,” was held within the framework of the Women’s Economic Security Program “Her Power, Her Future,” funded by the U.S. Department of State and implemented by the CARE Caucasus organization.

The discussion was moderated by the WINNET Armenia Network of Women’s Resource Centers, ensuring an open, inclusive, and substantive exchange of ideas.

“CARE Caucasus unites and empowers women across the Caucasus region by expanding economic opportunities, fostering collaborative networks, and promoting cross-border cooperation. 

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Women are often advised to combine their skills, present their projects more confidently, and strengthen their technical capacities to succeed in business. However, data collected over the past five years in four regions of Armenia within the framework of the ‘Her Power, Her Future’ initiative tells a different story. Women are already significant and influential contributors to the economy, and the core issue is not a lack of skills, but an ecosystem that constrains their advancement. These challenges are largely systemic, including unequal access to capital, limited networking opportunities, and the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work borne by women,” said Nino Bolkvadze, Executive Director of CARE Caucasus, in her opening remarks.

According to her, CARE Caucasus is working to reassess and improve the pathways through which women achieve success:

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“Women’s empowerment is not only a moral issue, but also a strategic imperative of our time. When women succeed, they contribute to their families, communities, and the broader economy, fostering greater resilience. Ensuring women’s sustainable economic participation requires effective legislation, innovative solutions, and, importantly, stronger public-private partnerships.”

She also emphasized that the organization’s activities in Armenia are aimed at fostering an environment that promotes dialogue, knowledge exchange, and collaboration. 

“By integrating technology, finance, and the creative potential of civil society, we aim to build a supportive, safe, and economically viable environment for women-led businesses. By empowering women entrepreneurs, we not only contribute to the growth of their businesses, but also to the creation of a more sustainable and inclusive future that benefits everyone,” she noted. 

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According to Ruzanna Torozyan, President of the WINNET Armenia Network of Women Resource Centers, the dialogue marked an important step toward strengthening the link between institutions and communities in order to more effectively support women entrepreneurs in Armenia.

“Strengthening the entrepreneurial ecosystem means ensuring that women have access not only to resources, but also to networks and platforms that foster growth,” she noted.

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David Barseghyan, Head of the Entrepreneurship Department at the Ministry of Economy of Armenia, also emphasized that supporting women’s entrepreneurship is a key priority of the government’s economic policy: “The Government of Armenia is consistently working to build an inclusive and competitive business environment, which remains one of the central pillars of the country’s economic policy. This approach is also reflected in the draft ‘SME Competitiveness Strategy 2026-2030’ developed by the Ministry of Economy of Armenia.

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Empowering women entrepreneurs is a central priority of our economic agenda. To this end, we are continuously expanding support mechanisms, development opportunities, and access to essential resources to ensure that women-led businesses grow, strengthen their market positions, and enhance their competitiveness. Our goal is to fully unlock the economic potential of women, enabling them to become one of the key drivers of Armenia’s economic transformation and inclusive growth.”

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Responding to concerns raised by women entrepreneurs that access to SME support programs is often limited in regional, particularly remote communities, David Barseghyan noted that efforts are being made to organize outreach visits within available resources: “During these visits, we bring together SME representatives from different communities in one place, listen to the challenges they raise, systematize them, and try to find appropriate solutions.”

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Hakob Avagyan, President of the SME Cooperation Association, in turn raised concerns over the absence of a dedicated state-level SME development structure in Armenia.

“At the moment, there is no clearly defined SME development strategy in Armenia; in other words, the state has not articulated what kind of SME sector it aims to develop. The previous strategy expired in 2024, and a significant part of its key provisions has not been implemented. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also addressed this issue, noting that one of the contributing factors is the closure of the national SME development structure that had been operating since 2002, which ceased its activities about four years ago, along with its regional offices,” he said.

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According to Hakob Avagyan, the former structure, though imperfect, played an important institutional role by responding to a wide range of entrepreneurs’ inquiries: “It was closed, but no other structure was created in its place. Under these circumstances, we are calling on the government to first clarify who will implement the new strategy, and only then proceed with its adoption.”

He also recalled that in 2014, through joint efforts with the government, Armenia introduced a law on tax exemptions for family entrepreneurship, which particularly supported the development of guesthouses. Later, this framework evolved into a micro-entrepreneurship system, also encompassing self-employed individuals, but further amendments were introduced in 2022: “The changes over the past four years, in our assessment, have further worsened the situation. Today, more than 30 percent of active business entities operate as sole proprietors, while the share of joint-stock companies is only 1-2 percent, which indicates that institutional development is not being ensured.”

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He added that, given the pre-election period, the association plans to invite economic representatives of the four leading political forces to meet with members of the SME Cooperation Association in order to clearly present the reforms and policy changes they propose for the sector.

Arpi Jilavyan

Photos by Gaiane Yenokian
]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2026 10:01:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30592 https://banks.am/en/news//30592 The official launch of the Georgian-Armenian Business Association (GABA) took place in Yerevan on April 15, bringing together representatives of the Armenian and Georgian business communities, international organizations, state institutions, and private sector stakeholders.
The event was held within the framework of CARE Caucasus’ “Her Power, Her Future” program, highlighting the agenda of women’s economic empowerment and inclusive growth.

The initiative aims to deepen bilateral economic ties, promote trade and investment, and create a platform for structured business cooperation.

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GABA founder and director Lali Svimonia presented the background and mission behind the association’s establishment.

“The Georgian-Armenian Business Association was created with a clear vision: to bridge the Georgian and Armenian markets,” Lali Svimonia noted. 

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Recently, a growing interest of Georgian companies in the Armenian market has been recorded, emphasizing the need for a more systematic and coordinated approach.

Highlighting the imbalance in bilateral business presence, Svimonia noted that around 600 Armenian companies operate in Georgia, compared to only about 10 Georgian companies in Armenia. She stressed that this gap represents a significant opportunity for growth and expansion.

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Lilya Sirakanyan, Deputy Minister of Economy of Armenia, noted that the establishment of a business association is an important step toward institutionalizing business relations. 

“We are confident that it will become an effective platform to support market entry, promote partnerships, and develop small and medium-sized enterprises. The Government of Armenia will continue to take steps to improve the business environment, attract investments, and expand regional cooperation. Interconnected economies build trust and long-term partnerships. I am confident that the initiatives launched today will lead to new investments, new partnerships, and joint growth,” the deputy minister said.

One of the key highlights of the event was the entry of Helio.AI into the Armenian market.

The company’s co-founder and CEO, Ia Jikia, noted in her speech:

“We are currently present in seven countries, and we are proud that Armenia has become our eighth market.”

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She emphasized the attractiveness of the Armenian market, citing its technological potential and rapid growth. Ia Jikia added that the company has conducted in-depth market research and has already begun cooperating with local organizations, marking a strong start.

She also presented the company’s technological solutions, noting that Helio.AI automates the human resources recruitment process, enabling companies to reduce manual work and focus more on the human aspect.

“Today, many companies still spend most of their time on mechanical processes, and we help them focus on people,” Ia Jikia said.

Nino Bolkvadze, Executive Director of CARE Caucasus, emphasized the strategic importance of cross-border cooperation:

“It is essential for unlocking new economic opportunities and strengthening regional resilience.”

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She noted that CARE Caucasus has long supported women-led businesses by providing grants and encouraging their participation in economic processes. According to her, the establishment of GABA is a logical continuation of these efforts aimed at fostering regional economic integration.

The panel discussions covered topics such as cross-border trade, investment opportunities, workforce development, and access to digital tools.

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Elina Margaryan, Board President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Armenia (Amcham), highlighted that regional cooperation opens up new opportunities for businesses, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.

She noted that such platforms not only help expand markets but also facilitate the exchange of experience and knowledge, which is crucial for building a competitive business environment.

Astghik Hovhannesov

Photos by Davit Ghahramanyan ]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2026 17:36:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30567 https://banks.am/en/news//30567 Daniel Gros is Director of the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University

Daniel Gros 

The sharp increase in global energy prices since the start of the Iran war has revived memories of the 2022 spike, triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the energy sanctions that followed. At that time, central banks failed to recognize right away the scale of the inflationary pressures being generated. By the time they did, they had little choice but to launch an abrupt and aggressive monetary-tightening cycle. Today, they seem committed not to make the same mistake.

So far, this shock appears to be smaller than in 2022. Though the increase in crude oil prices is similar-around 60-70%-the starting point is different. Crude oil prices rose sharply over the several months before the Ukraine war, more than doubling from their spring 2021 low (a result of the COVID-19 pandemic) to reach $80 per barrel-twice the 2020 average-by the end of the year. This rebound was generating inflationary pressures well before oil prices peaked at $110-$120 per barrel (similar to today’s level) in the summer of 2022.

In Europe, these pressures were compounded by rising natural-gas prices, which grew by a factor of 5-6, from their May 2020 low, by the end of 2021. That December, natural gas reached €70 ($80) per megawatt-hour on the leading Amsterdam TTF exchange-higher than the €50-55/MWh recorded since the Iran war began. While consumers usually have longer-term heating and electricity contracts that shield them from short-run price fluctuations, contracts were gradually repriced, causing the consumer price index to rise.

By the time Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, inflation was running above 5% on both sides of the Atlantic. But the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) paid it little mind, because their models predicted that inflation would fall back toward 2% at the end of their forecasting horizon.

Modern central-bank models assume that agents are forward-looking and trust that monetary policymakers will ultimately deliver on the 2% target. As long as energy prices are expected to decline, central banks do not need to raise interest rates. The ECB’s staff projections reflected this fundamental optimism: in March 2022, they had inflation falling from 5.1% in 2022 to 2.1% in 2023, without any interest-rate hike. By the time the ECB raised rates, in July 2022, inflation had surpassed 8%.

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ECB President Christine Lagarde is well aware that the current energy-price shock is smaller than the one Europe faced four years ago. She said as much in a recent speech, noting that the increase in inflation should be temporary. ECB staff projections match this view, putting inflation modestly above target at 3.5% for 2026 even under an adverse scenario, and assume it will fall back to 2% next year.

But the ECB appears set to act, anyway. As Lagarde put it, a “large though not-too-persistent overshoot” of the institution’s inflation target should not be left “entirely unaddressed,” as this “could pose a communication risk,” with the public finding it “difficult to understand a reaction function that does not react.” Moreover, the expectation that inflation will “deviate significantly and persistently from target” warrants an “appropriately forceful or persistent” response.

Rising medium-term interest rates indicate that financial markets now anticipate monetary-policy tightening this year, not only in Europe but also in the United States. At the very least, the Fed appears to be slowing down its rate-cutting cycle. This is notable, given that the US is paying about a third as much for natural gas as Europe or Asia, thanks to its large domestic energy-production base, comprising mostly shale gas (its export facilities for liquefied natural gas are operating at or near full capacity).

Policy is driven not only by data and models, but also by experience. Central banks do not want to lose the last war again. As a result, inflation is likely to remain under control, despite the pressures generated by the Iran war. The immediate impact of higher oil prices has so far been modest, with inflation increasing by half a percentage point, up to 2.5%. The ECB should be able to deal with this.

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For Europe, the bigger risk lies elsewhere. Faced with higher natural-gas prices, industry is lobbying hard for subsidies and a relaxation of emission-reduction targets. And European policymakers appear to be buckling under the pressure. At the last European Council meeting, they called for a review of the European Emissions Trading System, which forms the core of Europe’s green transition. Italy’s government has already announced plans to neutralize the effects of the carbon price set by the ETS.

That is an alarming turn. Given the rapidly escalating costs of global warming, Europe will regret allowing its climate ambitions to become yet another casualty of the Iran war.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org ]]> Sat, 11 Apr 2026 08:20:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30542 https://banks.am/en/news//30542 Esther Lynch is General Secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation, Oliver Roethig is Regional Secretary of UNI Europa.

Esther Lynch 
Oliver Roethig

The European Central Bank’s proposed digital euro is not merely another technological upgrade. In the face of US President Donald Trump’s antagonism toward the European Union’s regulation of Big Tech, and the European project as a whole, the digital euro represents a critical opportunity to advance digital sovereignty and fair competition on the continent. But to gain the trust of European citizens and businesses before its possible launch in 2029, the digital euro must be sovereign, public, and inclusive.

Most of today’s electronic transactions between individuals and businesses are carried out by private payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard. As more than 60 leading economists – including Thomas Piketty, Jan Pieter Krahnen, and Daniela Gabor – have rightly warned, this dependency is a strategic vulnerability.

When US multinationals dominate the digital financial infrastructure, US policymakers can use it as a tool for coercion. Nicolas Guillou, a French judge at the International Criminal Court, has been locked out of electronic payment systems since the United States sanctioned him last year. To build digital sovereignty and protect the international order, Europe must control these critical systems, including the underlying data infrastructure. The digital euro cannot rely on US cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services; European alternatives are urgently needed.

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The digital euro must be a public-sector solution. Recent successful experiences from Brazil and India show that homegrown digital payment systems can expand inclusion and reduce costs, but only when they remain public infrastructure. The digital euro must resist tech and fintech companies’ push for private money creation.

Lastly, and most importantly, the digital euro should be inclusive. That means the ECB’s wide-ranging “collaboration with numerous stakeholders” must include the retail, finance, and public workers who will operationalize the currency.

Bank employees across the eurozone will play a crucial role in ensuring the digital euro’s uptake, providing customers with clear explanations and dedicated support every step of the way. Postal workers might play a similar role for people who lack digital skills or a bank account, according to leaked ECB plans. And, of course, the digital euro will affect everyday transactions at supermarkets, clothing stores, and small shops, meaning that retail workers are best positioned to identify problems early and maintain the currency’s long-term credibility.

Not only is involving these workers in the digital euro’s development essential to facilitate its adoption, but there are massive opportunities for their employers, too. In the financial sector, for example, smaller institutions already face consolidation pressures. A digital euro managed by the ECB would therefore create a level playing field, strengthening the position of these small financial actors.

The same is true for retail. While large companies can rapidly adapt, small- and medium-size retailers are already under significant pressure from inflation, rising operating costs, and the market power of dominant online platforms such as Amazon. A well-designed digital euro, with low transaction costs and strong public oversight, could reduce dependency on private payment providers, safeguard quality employment, and create a fairer single market.

Above all, the digital euro must build real European digital sovereignty, not perpetuate reliance on a handful of US companies subject to US laws. It must strengthen competition, not entrench dominant players. And it must be shaped by the workers – from bank employees to retail cashiers and postal workers – responsible for day-to-day implementation.

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Of course, cash still has a role to play in protecting privacy and autonomy. Moreover, it sustains thousands of skilled jobs in printing, transport, and security, while ensuring social inclusion for older people, low-income households, and those without smartphones or connectivity.

As the European Parliament prepares to vote on the digital euro later this year (the ECB requires legislative approval to issue the currency), it has already signaled clear support for the project. In addition to endorsing the digital euro as a tool to strengthen European monetary sovereignty, it has also reaffirmed the ECB’s independence and the continued role of cash.

In this next phase, the ECB and other European institutions should recognize trade unions as constructive partners. Existing social-dialogue structures – in banking, retail, and the European System of Central Banks – are credible forums that can be accessed immediately to help shape an inclusive digital euro.

Designing a digital euro with meaningful input from workers benefits all involved. It would improve job quality, streamline and strengthen adoption by businesses, and reinforce Europe’s high-trust socioeconomic model. If successful, this approach to implementing the digital euro, by placing democratic values at its core, could set an example for the rest of the world to emulate.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org ]]> Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:20:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30538 https://banks.am/en/news//30538 On April 6, 2026, the Fast-Forward 2026 conference dedicated to the future of business leadership, took place in Yerevan. The event was jointly organized by the Banks.am portal of Mediamax Media Company and Boyden Armenia.

The conference partners included Wilco Wealth Management, SIL Insurance, Alfa-Pharm and the European Campus of the University of York. 

“Succession in Armenian Business: The Desired and the Real” - this was the title of the second panel discussion at the Fast-Forward 2026 conference, moderated by Ara Tadevosyan, Director of Mediamax Media Company.
 
“Leaving” the business is difficult

Edgar Avetisyan, CEO at PROFAL

PROFAL was founded by my father and his partners. I recently took over as CEO, and the children of the other founders also participate in management.

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Transferring a business to the next generation is a complex process with many subtleties. Founders often feel they understand the company best, having built it from scratch and “layered everything on top of everything.” Even when they step back from daily operations, they retain deep knowledge of every detail.

“Leaving” a business is difficult. Without 10-15 years of preparation, a “sudden” transfer can be risky. If the business relies on a single person and the successor is unprepared, the company can collapse. 

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Our founders always dreamed of passing the business to their children and discussed it often. Yet, when the moment arrived, it was still difficult. We were only 25-28 years old when we began actively managing the company, and generational differences led to frequent clashes.

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It’s important to understand one crucial thing: succession requires readiness on both sides. Founders must be willing to pass the business on, but heirs must also be ready and capable of assuming responsibility. If you cannot convince your parents that you are prepared, the opportunity may never come.

Sanasar Beglaryan, CEO of Flash Company

In our case, the succession process began with a crisis. I was serving as commercial director in one of our companies when a crisis hit Flash, our largest or “mother” company, prompting my transfer.

I recently came across a thought that resonates deeply: “Companies need young, smart people with the courage to innovate and, if successful, turn everything upside down – but they also need experienced, older people to ensure nothing essential is overturned.” 

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It may sound paradoxical, but while the founder is the driving force behind a business, they can also be the cause of its slowdown or even collapse if they fail to recognize the moment when they have reached their peak and must make way for change. This is precisely where corporate governance becomes essential.

“Talking about capital, money, inheritance is often taboo”

Davit Gasparyan, Chief Client Relationship Manager at Wilco

We are in the post-Soviet era, where significant private capital has only existed for about 30 years. Today, people aged 50-70, who created and managed this capital, are entering the stage where they must also manage succession. This process needs to start early and be approached systematically, whether the heir comes from the family or from management.

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The legal aspects of succession are often the easiest; the psychological aspects are the most challenging. In our culture, open dialogue about capital, money, and inheritance is often taboo, and few families discuss them freely.

In our experience working with at least six families, founders involve heirs in decisions about capital management, giving them the opportunity to present ideas. This also makes it easier to raise succession issues. 

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Many founders do not imagine that their business can not only survive but even grow with minimal involvement from them. At the same time, heirs often hesitate to assume responsibility, not realizing that they have the same opportunity to make mistakes and learn from them, just as the founders did. 

“Legislation does not ensure the continuity of capital”

Varuzhan Avetikyan, Chairman of the Board of Evocabank, Managing Partner of Andersen in Armenia law firm

Succession and inheritance are not only private concerns – they also matter to the state. Continuity ensures wealth, and the accumulation and transfer of capital across generations create lasting national prosperity. While companies are private, they also form part of a country’s national wealth.

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Current inheritance laws in Armenia are largely inherited from the Soviet era. Over the past 30 years, private capital – including businesses and assets – has grown steadily, yet existing legislation does not guarantee the continuity of these enterprises or the cash flows they generate. As a result, businesses may face serious challenges.

While family inheritance is a primary focus, non-kinship transfers – to foundations, communities, universities, and other institutions – also remain unresolved. For businesses founded in the 1990s, these issues are urgent. Without timely solutions, a significant portion of the capital accumulated over the next 20 years could be lost.

“Business shouldn’t revolve around one person”

Edgar Avetisyan, CEO at PROFAL

Founders need to understand that when a business revolves around them, it is essential to change the management model over time. Continuing with the same model is often a path to failure.

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Personally, I do not want PROFAL – or any partner-led business – to revolve around me. Our goal is to prepare today so that within the next 10 years, the company can operate under a more advanced management model. The state also plays an important role in this process, as clear models and regulations are currently lacking

Varuzhan Avetikyan, Chairman of the Board of Evocabank, Managing Partner of Andersen in Armenia law firm

During generational transitions, there is often a tendency to think: our elders built the business and did so successfully, but today’s reality is different and requires change to achieve further growth. In navigating this transition, it is essential to answer three key questions: what core values should be preserved and passed on to the next generation; what is the story or legacy that must continue; and within what context the business operates.

The context in Armenia in the 1990s was fundamentally different from that of the 2000s or today. Yet this shift is often overlooked both by founders and successors.

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David Gasparyan, Chief Client Relationship Manager at Wilco

What should be passed from one generation to the next is not simply experience, but critical thinking. Founders should transfer their approaches to decision-making and partner selection.
In the post-Soviet context, many agreements between founders and partners remain informal. It is therefore crucial that the transition of these relationships is as smooth as possible. Successors should be introduced to partners early on and actively involved in ongoing negotiations.

Sanasar Beglaryan, CEO of Flash Company

A crisis is truly not just a challenge – it is often a driver of development. In many cases, it is precisely crisis situations that push a company forward.

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When the new generation takes over, it should, in a sense, “put the system into crisis”. However, the key issue is whether it has the competence to implement meaningful change. At the same time, successors must understand that succession first of all entails responsibility.

Read also: 

Independent directors, conflict of interests and evolution

Fast-Forward 2026: A new environment for discussing sensitive business issues

Ani Khchoyan

Photos by Emin Aristakesyan ]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2026 12:27:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30536 https://banks.am/en/news//30536 On April 6, 2026, the Fast-Forward 2026 conference dedicated to the future of business leadership, took place in Yerevan. The event was jointly organized by the Banks.am portal of Mediamax Media Company and Boyden Armenia.

The primary aim of Fast-Forward is to create a platform and a conducive environment where business representatives can freely discuss sensitive issues related to leadership, management, and development. 

The conference partners included Wilco Wealth Management, SIL Insurance, Alfa-Pharm and the European Campus of the University of York. 

“Independent Directors: Real Benefit or Tribute to Fashion?” – this was the title of the first panel discussion at the Fast-Forward 2026 conference, moderated by Sevada Baghdyan, Partner and Head of the Armenian and Georgian Offices at Boyden.

Independent Directors make up over 50% of Ameriabank’s Board

Tigran Davtyan, Independent Director of Ameriabank

Until recently, boards in companies were often seen as a “tribute to fashion.” However, transformations in Armenia’s banking system have shown that the involvement of independent directors is not a mere formality, but a vital element of effective governance.

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Independent directors frequently prove more effective than shareholder representatives. While shareholders often appoint board members based on personal trust, this does not always align with professional expertise.

International best practices in corporate governance recommend that at least 50% of a company’s management body be composed of independent directors. These professionals bring diverse experience and can significantly contribute to the company’s development.

In Armenia, the banking sector is increasingly adopting this approach. For example, independent directors at Ameriabank now account for more than 50% of the board.

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It is also important that these directors have experience across different fields, which fosters more balanced and higher-quality decision-making.

“Real board can be formed only when the shareholder realizes that the company is an institution, not a reflection of his own ‘self’” 

Elena Khachvankyan, Independent Member of the Board of Directors at IDBank

To move from a formal board to a real, working one, it is essential first to understand what independence means. I see independence as the very ‘air’ of conflict-of-interest management, without which, effective governance is impossible.

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It is natural for large shareholders to want their representatives on the board. However, this can risk turning the board into a purely formal body – a unit that simply endorses decisions already made. An independent board member must first and foremost bring professionalism. Being selected and invited to the board means that the individual can contribute genuine value.

Independence also implies autonomy from the CEO, the company, and the shareholders. An independent director relies on their own knowledge and experience, forms their own judgments, and has the courage to raise issues that others may avoid. This contributes to more balanced and well-considered decision-making.

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In such cases, the board can effectively balance compliance, risk management, and strategic development. While shareholders naturally have a vision for the company’s growth, they may not always fully perceive the risks or opportunities in certain areas. A professional board, equipped with the relevant expertise, can enrich and strengthen that strategy.

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In recent years, Armenia has seen significant progress in corporate governance. The Corporate Governance Code has been adopted at the legislative level, and the Central Bank has introduced policies encouraging the formation of more effective boards. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift in shareholders’ mindsets.

Today, Armenia is transitioning from regulation to actual implementation. When shareholders recognize that their company should function as an institution – not merely as a reflection of themselves – truly effective boards will emerge.”

“It’s hard to find a better word to describe a board than ‘advisory body’” 

Armine Melkonyan, Executive Director of SIL Insurance Company, Member of the Board of SIL Capital Company

“I must emphasize the pivotal role of the Central Bank in establishing a three-tier management hierarchy within financial organizations.

At the start of the discussion, Sevada Baghdyan presented statistics showing that, among Armenia’s 200 largest taxpayer companies, this three-tier hierarchy is often absent: many shareholders still retain the position of executive director. 

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The importance of an independent board is even greater in companies where the ultimate beneficiary is not a single shareholder but several, between whom conflicts of interest may arise. 

Looking at international experience, it is clear that in organizations with several shareholders, the absence of an independent board has often led to interruptions in business operations. An independent board functions as a balancing mechanism and becomes a critical tool for sustaining long-term business during sharp conflicts of interest.

In fact, it is difficult to find a better word to describe a board than ‘advisory body.’ It is a collegial body, where no single member can act independently of the others.

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It is also crucial to ensure gender diversity on boards. In recent years, business management has shifted toward a more people-centered model. The presence of emotional intelligence and empathy – qualities often more expressed in women – is increasingly important in effective board decision-making.

“I believe in evolution”

Mikayel Matsakyan, General Director of Alfa-Pharm Company

My colleagues mentioned that shareholders often do not relinquish the position of CEO. In our pharmaceutical industry, this is even more pronounced: shareholders often hold not just the CEO role, but almost all key positions.

We also need to consider the objective reality: many businesses were founded in the 1990s, when roles were not clearly defined. A founder could simultaneously act as worker, negotiator, commercial director, and call taker. In this sense, I believe in evolution – it takes time for transformation processes to succeed.

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Our board of directors was established in 2008, when the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) became a shareholder of Alfa-Pharm. One of the mandatory conditions was the introduction of a corporate governance system. At that time, most shareholders’ mindset was, ‘We need funding, and if creating a board is necessary to get it, we will create one.’ 

Today, the situation is very different. Board discussions are now focused on the company’s future and strategic development. Shareholders have begun to understand and appreciate the value of this approach. 

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There is also a cultural aspect: Armenians tend to avoid debate, often interpreting opposing opinions as personal criticism rather than alternative perspectives. At Alfa-Pharm, we have managed to create a board environment where healthy debate thrives and it is from these discussions that valuable ideas for the company emerge. 

Read also: Fast-Forward 2026: A new environment for discussing sensitive business issues

Yana Shakhramanyan

Photos by David Ghahramanyan ]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:36:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30534 https://banks.am/en/news//30534 On April 6, 2026, the Fast-Forward 2026 conference dedicated to the future of business leadership, took place in Yerevan. The event was jointly organized by the Banks.am portal of Mediamax Media Company and Boyden Armenia.

The primary aim of Fast-Forward is to create a platform and a conducive environment where business representatives can freely discuss sensitive issues related to leadership, management, and development. 

The conference partners included Wilco Wealth Management, SIL Insurance, Alfa-Pharm and the European Campus of the University of York. 

The event partner of the conference was Skill Event Marketing.

“Rather than complaining, create a supportive environment”

Ara Tadevosyan, Director of Mediamax Media Company

In 2024 and 2025, Mediamax Media Company organized the Robust Armenia 25 and Robust Armenia 26 conferences, focusing on sustainable development (this year’s Robust Armenia conference will take place on April 22.) We saw a clear need for platforms where business community representatives can openly discuss key issues without unnecessary “protocol.”

While preparing the press release for Fast-Forward 2026, we realized that this year is symbolic: the Banks.am portal marks its 20th anniversary, while Boyden celebrates its 80th. Together – 100 (laughs-auth.)

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In our work, we often observe that businesses are not always ready for open dialogue with the media. Rather than complaining about this, we chose to create an environment where all parties feel like partners, and where open discussion serves everyone’s interests.

We are grateful to our conference partners. We intentionally use the term “partner” instead of “sponsor,” as this initiative is built on a genuine spirit of collaboration. It is especially valuable for us that four organizations – Wilco, SIL Insurance, Alfa-Pharm, and the European Campus of the University of York – placed their trust in us. Equally important is the diversity of sectors represented, including an academic institution, which highlights the broad relevance of the topics discussed.

We plan to make this conference an annual event in collaboration with Boyden Armenia. From the outset, our goal is to set a high standard and consistently work toward maintaining it. In addition to the main conference, we are also considering organizing smaller events throughout the year.

“Armenian businesses have a structured DNA”

Sevada Baghdyan, Partner, Head of the Armenian and Georgian Offices at Boyden

I am deeply grateful to Mediamax for partnering with us to organize this leadership-focused conference. Through many years of executive search consulting, we have arrived at an important insight: Armenian businesses – regardless of their age – already possess a distinct “gene,” DNA or a model. While this model may require refinement and increased efficiency, it cannot simply be disregarded.

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If we attempt to radically transform Armenia’s governance model overnight by replacing it with imported international practices, we will inevitably encounter serious challenges. A more effective approach is to take existing structures into account, focus on their gradual improvement, and develop a balanced “symbiosis” between Armenian governance and international best practices.

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At the conclusion of his remarks, Sevada Baghdyan presented the results of a study examining directors of 200 large taxpayer companies in Armenia. A more detailed analysis of this research will be published in a separate article soon.

Read also:

Independent directors, conflict of interests and evolution

“Succession in Armenian Business” – open and frank discussion

Yana Shakhramanyan

Photos by David Ghahramanyan ]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:50:00 +0400 https://banks.am/en/news//30520 https://banks.am/en/news//30520 Banks.am presents a brief quarterly report titled “Armenian Banks in the Media,” compiled using data from the MaxMonitor media monitoring system operated by the Mediamax media company.
According to data for the first quarter of 2026, IDBank leads in terms of media mentions (across news websites, newspapers, and television news programs) with 768 mentions. Fast Bank ranks second with 622 mentions, followed by Ameriabank in third place with 588 mentions.

In the first quarter of 2026, IDBank led in terms of mentions on news websites with 752 mentions; Armeconombank led in newspapers with 15 articles, while IDBank also led television coverage with 6 reports.

In terms of positive mentions, IDBank ranks first (682 mentions,) followed by Fast Bank (615 mentions) and Ameriabank (472 mentions).

By share of positive coverage, Fast Bank leads with 98.9% (615 positive mentions out of 622 total). Biblos Bank Armenia ranks second with 97.2% (69 out of 71), and Acba Bank ranks third with 90.6% (471 out of 520).

***

Mediamax has been conducting media monitoring since 2001. The banking monitoring service was launched in 2009 and has been operated through the Mediamax system since mid-2015.

The system tracks media coverage of all commercial banks in Armenia and consists of two main components: Monitoring and Analysis. The database is updated every 15 minutes.

Within the scope of banking monitoring, the system covers all Armenian news websites (approximately 150), around a dozen newspapers, and nine television companies broadcasting news programs. ]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2026 12:24:00 +0400